MEDIUM TERM FORECAST FOR GOLD PRODUCTION, DEVELOPMENT & EXPLORATION
Consultant, METALS FOCUS
The gold mining industry is now at an exciting juncture; balance sheets have been repaired, funding pressures are easing, and the development pipeline needs quality projects, if global production levels are to be maintained. In that context, what does the next five years look like? abstract
- Can exploration fill the gap?
- How healthy is the project pipeline?
- Existing mines - scope for output growth or life extension
Mark founded the consultancy, Skarn Associates in 2016, having previously led the metals and mining consulting business at SNLFinancial. His career started with four years as an exploration geologist on various projects in Africa, followed by thirteen years at Brook Hunt (now Wood Mackenzie). From 2009 to 2011 Mark was Managing Director of GFMS Mine Economics. He has thirty years of mining sector experience, with expertise in the economics of precious metal mining.
Precious metals in a monetary policy normalisation phase
senior vice president, cross asset solutions
Jeremy will give the audience an insight into the core macro investment themes and macro regimes his company monitors and how these affect our exposure to gold and other precious metals more broadly. Inflation should make a comeback in 2018 and should in turn result in Central Banks normalising monetary policy. In such an environment, precious metals can offer interesting diversification properties in portfolios.
- Our macro regime and their impact on assets (Recession / Inflation / Market Stress and Steady growth)
- Our macro investment themes – Growth / Inflation / Monetary policy normalisation
- Other factors also matter when it comes to precious metals
- The Golden constant – Store of value
Jeremy Gatto, Senior Vice President, is an investment manager within the Cross Asset Solutions team. Jeremy joined Unigestion in 2013 as a trader. He began his career in 2007 at Crédit Agricole CIB London before joining Tiberius Asset Management AG in 2008 as a Trader focusing on commodities and became Head of Trading in 2011. Jeremy Gatto holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics from the University of London.
Raising the Benchmark
EXECUTIVE BOARD DIRECTOR & GENERAL COUNSEL,
LONDON BULLION MARKET ASSOCIATION (LBMA)
- The presentation provides an overview of the different types of regulation affecting the precious metals markets. This includes, the implementation of MiFID II earlier this year and the Benchmarks Regulation. Also, an update will be provided on the capital rules requirements, namely Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), the implementation of the Global Precious Metals Code and also the trade reporting initiative, that the LBMA launched back in 2016.
- Precious Metals Prices are now regulated under European regulation, with most of the rules impacting the auction administrator. However, gold and silver price have been regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority since 2015
- Global Precious Metals code affects the entire OTC market and should be applied proportionally
- NSFR remains one of the biggest regulatory risk, which could lead to a potential fall in liquidity or a significant increase in cost
In her role as General Counsel of the London Bullion Market Association and also an Executive member of the LBMA Board, Sakhila has been involved in, and taken the lead on a number of projects of the Association. This has included, but not limited to: working closely with the CEO on the strategic direction of the LBMA; transitioning all of the four precious metals benchmarks onto electronic platforms by working with the service providers as well as regulators; leading the draft and launch of the Precious Metals Code; working with external service provider to enhance transparency in the precious metals market by launching the LBMA trade reporting initiative; and providing for lobbying efforts on behalf of members on a number of issues, for example EU Conflicts Minerals regulation, Net Stable Funding Ratio amongst other regulations.
In addition to this, Sakhila takes responsibility for all the legal and regulatory work of the Association and that of London Precious Metals Clearing Limited (LPMCL). She is involved in setting policies and leading the incident management process within the LBMA by working with various external stakeholders to help with decision making. She has also focused on meeting and building relationships with governmental officials and regulators and continues to educate all such stakeholders on the dynamics of the bullion market and all the work undertaken by the LBMA.
Sakhila brings with her a wealth of experience having previously worked in the energy and commodities industry where she dealt with compliance, legal and regulatory matters. Sakhila read law at the London School of Economics and went onto qualify as a solicitor.
the bullish case for gold
president, Murenbeeld & Co.
The presentation will focus on the bullish case for gold, with special emphasis on the US dollar, rising global debt levels and its impact on monetary policy, central bank gold purchases, and other bullish factors. The presentation will also touch upon some potentially bearish factors, including quantitative tightening, an absence of inflation, and rising equity markets. The presentation will conclude with some price scenarios for 2018-19.
- A review of the bullish factors for gold
- A review of bearish factors
- A forecast of gold based upon the balance of bearish and bullish factors.
- Question and Answer session
Dr. Murenbeeld graduated from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1972 with a PhD in international finance. He then joined the Faculty of Management Studies at the University of Toronto to develop the international business curriculum in the MBA program. He left the Faculty in 1978 to start M. Murenbeeld & Associates Inc. The company moved from Toronto to Victoria in 1989, where it continued to consult international clients on developments in the gold, foreign exchange and credit markets, and international economic trends.
Dr. Murenbeeld provides analysis and advice on economic and financial developments, with special emphasis on North American interest rate and currency market trends – and on trends in the gold market. Reports include the Economic Monitor, which forecasts general economic trends occurring in North America and abroad, the Market Monitor, which covers developments in equity and capital markets in North America, the Gold Monitor, which forecasts gold market trends, the Financial Monitor, which forecasts economic, interest rate and foreign exchange market trends, and the Bond and Stock Monitor, which assists with decisions related to asset allocation.
Frequently quoted in the financial press and a regular speaker at international precious metals and foreign exchange market conferences, Dr. Murenbeeld has over 30 years of independent consulting experience in the gold, currency and credit markets and is currently also an adjunct professor (international finance) in the Faculty of Business at the University of Victoria.
The outlook for gold demand - opportunities and challenges in 2018 and beyond
Chief market strategist, world gold council
John Reade’s presentation will cover a range of factors that investors should be aware of when evaluating the current and longer-term prospects for gold. These will include the key drivers of gold demand and supply and the current macro-economic factors likely to impact the immediate market outlook for gold. The presentation will also touch upon current conditions and changing dynamics in specific national markets and their wider implications.
The presentation will offer the audience:
- A better understanding of gold market structure and fundamentals
- A description of developments in gold’s key physical markets
- An overview of economic and socio-political factors that are likely to have an influence on the gold price in 2018
- An explanation of why gold remains a compelling investment and its unique qualities contrasted against competing assets
John Reade joined the World Gold Council in February 2017 as Chief Market Strategist. John is respon
sible for producingstrategy and developing insights on the gold market; leading our global dialogue by engaging with leading economists, academics, policy makers, fund managers and investors on gold; and leading our research team.
John has over 30 years’ experience in the gold industry and related fields, most recently as a partner and gold strategist with Paulson & Co for the past seven years. Prior to that, John worked as an precious metals strategist at UBS for 10 years; a gold equity analyst in South Africa for 5 years; and over 8 years held various positions in production and project evaluation in the gold division of Gencor, then a leading South African mining house.
John has a degree in Mining Engineering from the Royal School of Mines, a constituent of Imperial College, London.